I got that one right on the nose. Bluetooth still isn't that interesting. There's been some noise about a Bluetooth SD card, and there's a large Bluetooth cradle out. However, there's just no compelling reason to care yet, unless you're a manufacturer invested in Bluetooth.

For 2002, I predict Bluetooth will fade into obscurity, except for a few special purpose applications. The technology known as 802.11 or WiFi (the local area wireless networking technology used in Apple's Airport) will win by a landslide. 802.11 installations are showing up all over, it's easy to install, it has a much longer range than Bluetooth, and it's a lot faster. For 2002, I predict 802.11 will leave Bluetooth in the dust.

3. Price
My 2001 prediction: I predict 2001 will herald the introduction of the first under $100 Palm OS device. Expect such a device to have substantial trade-offs to make the price possible. Certainly, there won't be a cradle. We can expect this device to use the least expensive materials and possibly be a bit bulkier than the more expensive devices.

I got this one partially right. I have seen Palm handhelds available in special retail promotions for as low as $49. And, amazingly, you can buy a refurbished Palm m100 from the Palm store for a shockingly low $69.30. But we did not see a mass market, widely distributed product under $100 in 2001.

After all the financial upsets many of our favorite manufacturers have been through, along with their avowed focus on the enterprise, I honestly can't predict that there will be a mainstream, sub-$100 Palm OS handheld in 2002. I think there's a slim chance, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. That said, I think you can definitely count on being able to buy a Palm OS handheld for under $100 in 2002. It just won't be part of a mainstream product-pricing event.

4. Major PC manufacturer
My 2001 prediction: I predict we'll see Dell, Compaq, HP, or Gateway (or, wild shot, Apple) introduce a Palm OS device with unique design elements.

This one I got wrong. The Pocket PC came on strong, and HP, Compaq, and Toshiba each came out with well-received devices. Surprisingly, Dell has yet to put its label on any handheld device. Also, both Sony and Apple surprised me. Sony came out with a compellingly differentiated device in their color, MP3-playing, higher resolution Sony CLIE.

Apple completely surprised me, introducing a handheld-sized MP3 player (the unbelievably sexy iPod). Sadly, the amazing iPod is only limited to new model Macintoshes, so even folks who have a ton of slightly older machines (like me) can't take advantage of it.

We also saw adoption, not by PC makers, but by phone makers. Both Samsung and Kyocera have integrated Palm OS phones that are functional as well as lust-worthy.

For 2002, I suspect we'll see some interesting shakeout between HP and Compaq, especially as a result of their proposed merger. Rather than seeing another major PC manufacturer move into the Palm OS world, I predict we'll see more aggressive innovation by current Palm OS licensees. And I think we'll see the Palm OS licensed in some new, interesting, and unpredictable ways.